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Round and round we go. Boom. Slump. Balance. What does a new property cycle mean for buyers and sellers?

LOUISE CALEO, PROJECT MARKETING SPECIALIST

Over the recent months at Core we have observed a change in buyers’ behaviour. An uncertainty. Which undoubtedly is a direct response to theatrocracy and spooking to interest rate increases, cost of living, and a change in Federal Government, bolstered through press headlines – week in, week out.

Tiresome, right? On the back of this melody, buyers today are proving to be more selective and taking a more considered approach in deciding where and what product to invest in, whether it be their first or subsequent home. And, while we experience an environment where there may be less FOMO (fear of missing out), it is here, between the headlines of a market downtown, slump, fall or otherwise, we are in-fact experiencing a soft shift to a state of balance in the Greenfields market in Victoria.

Over the past two years, the Victorian Greenfields market saw the highest volume of sales transactions in history and in terms of first home buyer activity, we experienced the greatest movement from this buyer type nationwide since 2009 (CoreLogic). At Core the past two calendar years saw a total of 5,504 contracts written, whereas 2021 saw a two-hundred percent increase in written contracts from 2020. It is no secret the Victorian Greenfields market experienced a boom of intense activity, where we entered 2022 from almost the peak of the merry-go-round that is the rolling property cycle. It was indeed, a sellers market.

Today, we are met at what feels like an equilibrium, is this where we want to be?

As sellers, we continue to see median days on market low, conversations to discounts, rebates, or other buyer incentives remain un-had with our developer partners, since to date this is not required – sales are being made at a conversational pace.

Looking to historic data (pre-boom) the 2019 calendar year might be considered a more level market for buyers and sellers alike. Comparatively, in June 2019, the cash rate was set at 1.5%, today, while there is whirring, generalised, and mythological background commentary to a crashing property market – we arguably see better market conditions? All fundamentals including the cash rate, a shrinking supply level, and increased employment rate, point to a growth story for Greenfields. So as sellers, more sensibly, this just may be a cushiony landing from the greenfield market ‘peak’ of 2021.